BigBear.ai (BBAI) Q4 Earnings: Stock Tumbles on Missed Expectations & Weak 2025 Guidance
Key Highlights
- Stock Down: BBAI shares fell 12.50% following the earnings release
- Revenue: $43.8 million (Q4) —
8% YoY but below analyst expectations of $53.84 million - EPS: -$0.43 adjusted (missed estimates of -$0.06)
- 2025 Guidance: $160-180 million revenue (below $193.9M analyst projections)
- EBITDA Outlook: Negative single-digit millions expected for 2025
The Good News
Despite the earnings miss, BigBear.ai did report some positive developments:
- Improved Margins: Gross margin increased to 37.4% in Q4 2024 (up from 32.1% in Q4 2023)
- Growing Backlog: Ended with $418 million backlog as of December 31, 2024 (2.5x increase YoY)
- Debt Reduction: Reduced net debt from $150 million to $27 million since end of Q4
Management Commentary
CEO Kevin McAleenan called 2024 "a pivotal year for the business," highlighting:
CFO Julie Peffer noted significant balance sheet improvements through warrant exercises and debt conversions early in Q1 2025.
Risk Factors
The company cautioned that a potential U.S. government shutdown or changes in national security priorities could impact its 2025 outlook.
What's Your Take?
- Are you holding BBAI through this turbulence?
- Does the improved backlog signal better days ahead despite the earnings miss?
- How concerning is the gap between guidance and analyst expectations?
Share your thoughts below!
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